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| Graham Couch, Sports Editor |
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Baseball Preview 2000
Indians, Reds favorites for World Series, Sox, Cubs, not yet ready for prime time
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The Boys of summer are back. At a time when the NCAA Tournament has just ended and sports fans feel like playing outdoors again, it is good to see that it’s baseball season.
For most Major League Baseball teams the question becomes: do we have enough quality pitching to contend? Every team could use more and most teams think they have enough to win consistently if they stay injury free, and if that one pitching prospect works out as they hope. For many, the reality will set in by May. But it’s April, so for now lets not think about May.
Many questions have to be answered. Will the Indians continue to dominate the American League Central? Can the Red Sox finally catch the Yankees? Does the addition of Ken Griffey Jr. elevate the previously low budget Reds to contenders? And, oh yea, will either the White Sox or Cubs give fans a reason to follow them in September?
According to my calculations (they are pretty reliable, trust me), the Yankees, Indians, and Mariners will all win their divisions in the American League, and the Blue Jays will make the playoffs via the wild card. In the National League, the Braves, Reds, and Diamondbacks will all win their respective divisions, with the Mets taking the wild card spot. The World Series will come down to the Indians and Reds, with the Tribe winning in six.
By the end of summer, or maybe even in the next couple months, we will know the answers. However, for now, here is how I think each team will fair.
AL East
New York Yankees
With a pitching rotation that includes Roger Clemens, Orlando Hernandez, David Cone and Andy Pettite, it will be no surprise if the Yankees tear through the American League on their way to their third straight World Series. They have an explosive line-up that is as tough one-through-five as any in baseball, and they have a bullpen that can shut down opponents in the late innings. With Ramiro Mendoza and Mariano Rivera finishing games, a seventh inning lead will usually become a win. The Yanks should win the AL East and will be the odds on favorites to repeat as World Series Champs. With a payroll reaching nearly 82 million, there is no excuse not to.
Toronto Blue Jays
This should be the year Chris Carpenter becomes the ace of the Blue Jays pitching staff. If his elbow doesn’t flare up and David Wells’ back stays healthy (it has given him trouble this spring), this is a dangerous duo. Throw Roy Halladay into that mix along with closer Billy Koch, who is an emerging star, and this pitching staff could be solid enough for a wild card bid. One big question for the Blue Jays will be how the trade of rightfielder Shawn Green for Raul Mondesi works out. If Mondesi keeps his cool, he could have a huge season batting third, right before Carlos Delgado.
Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox trimmed the difference between them and the Yankees from 22 games in 1998 to four games last season. If they want to eclipse New York this season the Red Sox are going to need a big season from Martinez. No, not Pedro (that is a given), but his older brother Ramon. The elder Martinez is coming off rotator cuff surgery that caused him to miss much of last year and the Sox need him to produce big this season, because the rest of their pitching staff is suspect at best. The acquisition of Carl Everett in centerfield will drastically help an offense that is otherwise very average.
Baltimore Orioles
After a horrible 1999 season in which the Orioles spent $84 million to be a losing team, Baltimore dumped their entire bullpen except for high-priced reliever Mike Timlin. That may not be enough for the aging Orioles. Last years’ team chemistry was terrible so the organization dumped manager Ray Miller in favor of former Indians skipper Mike Hargrove. Hargrove may be more relaxed than Miller and he may have one of the best pitching aces in the game in Mike Mussina to work with, but Mickey Mantle and Mother Theresa would have trouble getting this group of head cases to listen to them. By mid-season the Orioles will either be in contention for a wild card, or cleaning house.
Tampa Bay Devil Rays
The Devil Rays increased their payroll by $37 million in the offseason. General Manager Chuck LaMar went out and got himself a decent team. The addition of Juan Guzman and Steve Trachsel to go along with Wilson Alvarez gives the Rays three veteran pitchers who will provide solid innings. LaMar also went out and signed outfielders Greg Vaughn and Gerald Williams, and traded for Vinny Castilla. On paper, this team looks pretty solid. Too bad they don’t play the games on paper.
AL Central
Cleveland Indians
All that is left to do is win the World Series. Apparently five consecutive division titles and two World Series appearances were not enough to save former manager Mike Hargrove’s job. Enter Charlie Manuel. He has the toughest job in baseball: sitting and watching his group of all-stars destroy the rest of the AL Central. Cleveland has David Justice batting in the seven spot in the line-up. The seven spot! Most teams would use him in clean-up. Plus they added pitching ace Chuck Finley to go along with an already formidable staff. The regular season is just a warm-up for the Indians. This group was built to beat the Yankees.
Detroit Tigers
What looked like a pretty average line-up a year ago all of a sudden looks pretty imposing with the addition of Juan Gonzales. Despite manager Phil Gardner’s claim that the Indians are vulnerable, the Tigers won’t challenge the Tribe this season, but they should be much improved from their pathetic 69-92 showing in 1999. With Gonzales, Tony Clark and Dean Palmer in the heart of the order, it is time for talented youngster Juan Encarnacion to finally become a consistent star. If he does so, and provides the Tigers with a deadly bat in the eight spot, the Tigers could hang around in the wild card chase until late August. After that, the reality of an average pitching staff without an ace will set in.
Chicago White Sox
The Sox are young and dangerous and probably a year away from contending. At 26, Magglio Ordonez looks to be a bonified star. He has been creaming the ball in spring training, coming off a season which he hit 30 homers and batted in 117 runs. With Ray Durham, second year centerfielder Chris Singleton and a talented young pitching staff, the White Sox will be entertaining if nothing else. If 31 year-old Frank Thomas can some how regain the form he has lost the last two seasons, then the playoffs become a slim possibility. Most likely check back at this time next season to see a contender.
Kansas City Royals
The Royals have joined the Tigers and White Sox in following Cleveland’s model for how to build a team: develop a good young core through your farm system and then add the additional free agents as needed. While they are slightly behind Detroit and Chicago, at least for the first time in recent memory Kansas City was able to keep the majority of their line-up together through the off season. Second baseman Carlos Febles, and Outfielders Carlos Beltran and Jermaine Dye give the Royals three tough outs with speed in the middle of the batting order. If Kansas City can get production out of a starting pitcher other than Jose Rosado, they may finish .500.
Minnesota Twins
The Twins are a prime example of the reality of modern day baseball economics. Their payroll of just over $17 million is ridiculously low and with attendance in the Metrodome falling to near single digits, it’s not going to get any better any time soon. The “Twinkies” don’t have enough power in their line-up to win 60 games. And while the line-up may be young, it is not full of talented prospects, just role players. Worse yet, look for their staff ace Brad Radke to be shipped out to a contender be the July 31 trading deadline. This team would struggle to go .500 in AAA ball.
AL West
Seattle Mariners
Previously known for their ability to knock the ball out of the yard and pile up runs, the 2000 version of the Mariners may rely more on their deepest pitching staff in franchise history. Freddy Garcia, Jamie Moyer, and Aaron Sele all won 14 or more games last season. Moyer, a crafty veteran, is one of the best lefthanders in the game. The loss of Griffey will not be as hard felt as expected due to the pitching friendly confines of Safeco field. Edgar Martinez should now get the recognition he deserves as the best pure hitter in baseball.
Texas Rangers
With Juan Gonzales gone, the Rangers have taken a pitching first approach this season. The added three new starting pitchers through free agency (Justin Thompson, Kenny Rogers, and Darren Oliver). When Thompson, aquired from Detroit in the Gonzales trade, returns from shoulder surgery in early May, the Rangers will have three lefties in their starting rotation, something that could give AL batters fits. The major questions for Texas revolve around their offense. Can Pudge Rodriguez carry the load with his bat and catch 130 games? Will right fielder Gabe Kapler, also acquired for Gonzales, produce enough at the plate to soften the blow of losing the AL’s top RBI man? If both these questions can be answered yes, then Texas will contend for the AL West crown.
Oakland Athletics
The A’s know how to spend money. Last year, with a $25 million payroll, they battled for a wild card spot until the final week. They held on to most of their key players and seemed primed for another shot at the playoffs. Right-handed pitcher Kevin Appier gives Oakland something that few teams have, a true ace to their pitching staff. Gil Heredia, Tim Hudson, and Omar Olivares make the A’s staff one of the top five in the AL. Considering everybody knows they can score runs in droves, Oakland has a chance to win the AL West.
Anahiem Angels
Injuries have plagued the Angels the past two seasons. This year it won’t be a problem. That’s because even if Jim Edmonds and Mo Vaughn manage to stay healthy, Anahiem’s sorry pitching staff will keep them from contention. Ken Hill, Tim Belcher, and Tom Candiotti, and Kent Mercker make up a nice starting rotation, if this was 1994. Unless all of them suddenly regain their old form, the Angels have no prayer.
NL East
Atlanta Braves
Finding a weakness in the Atlanta Braves line-up is not easy. If Andres Galarraga returns to his old self after missing last season with cancer, the Braves will have the best line-up three through seven in baseball. The question for the Braves becomes how much the loss of starting pitcher and Captain John Smoltz will hurt. Smoltz will miss the entire season with a torn ligament in his pitching elbow. Greg Maddux, Kevin Millwood, and Tom Glavine still give Atlanta the best top of a pitching rotation in the Major Leagues. However, the loss of Smoltz makes it paramount that the Braves avoid further injuries to their pitching staff. If any of the three fall, the World Series could be a “Subway Series.”
New York Mets
With a line-up that bats Edgardo Alfonzo, Todd Zeile, Mike Piazza, Robin Ventura, and Derek Bell two through six, balls will be flying out of Shea this summer. Pitching should not be a problem either this season for the Mets. Acquiring Mike Hampton from the Mariners for Eric Anthony was a brilliant move. He will headline a rotation that has three other legitimate starters. The question remaining in the Big Apple is do the Mets have enough to beat the Braves? On paper, yes. But any team with Bobby Valentine managing them has the ability to blow up at anytime.
Philadelphia Phillies
Last season the Phillies were 13 games over .500 in mid August before they collapsed and limped their way to 77-85 record. However, the early season overachieving was enough to convince Phillies management to spend some money in the off season. They went out and signed veteran closer Mike Jackson and solid starter Andy Ashby. Ashby is a great number two starter, but he’ll have to be the staff ace until Curt Shilling returns in late May. If the Phillies can stay above .500 without Schilling, they will be contenders for a playoff spot upon his return.
Montreal Expos
New Ownership and a new attitude. That’s what Jeffrey Loria brought has brought since taking over the franchise in December. He has promised that the team will no longer act as a farm system to other Major League Teams. Besides promising to build a new stadium and keep the Expos in Montreal, Loria has already upped their payroll from $16 million to $28 million. That allowed the team to go out and Hideki Irabu and Graeme Lloyd and not let any of their young players get away. They also recently traded for troubled reliever and former Brave John Rocker. If he thinks New York was culture shock, wait until he gets to Montreal. Can you say Parla vou Francis?
Florida Marlins
They are young and they are fairly talented, but that doesn’t matter. By the time most of these young pups are bonified Major Leaguers, they will been shipped elsewhere. The franchise can’t afford to keep and good young players or bring in any from outside. It doesn’t appear to be getting any better any time soon for the 1997 World Series Champs. Their attendance is low and their fans don’t care. The franchise wants to move. Better yet, let them fold.
NL Central
Cincinnati Reds
Last season the Reds overachieved to a 95-67 record and a playoff berth. This year winning will not mean overachieving. The Reds brought in more star power in the off season than any other team. Adding Ken Griffey Jr. and Dante Bichette in the middle of the order to go along with the always improving Pokey Reese and already stars Barry Larkin and Sean Casey makes the Reds nearly unstoppable offensively. If their pitching staff stays healthy, they will cruise through the NL Central. However, both Pete Harnisch and Denny Neagle have had plenty of injury trouble over the last year.
St. Louis Cardinals
The last two record breaking seasons by Mark McGwire have meant nothing more than mediocrede to the Cardinals record. Now they think they have the consistency in their line-up and the horses in their pitching staff to compete. Their infield of Fernando Vina, Edgar Renteria, Fernando Tatis, and McGwire may be the best hitting infield in baseball. The questions once again lie within their pitching staff. Much of the success of this rotation depends on whether or not Darryl Kile can reignite his once promising career. Two years of pitching at Coors Field can destroy ones confidence. If he regains the form that made him an all-star in Houston and can give this staff an true ace, the Cards’ have a chance at the playoffs.
Houston Astros
The Top four hitters in the Astros line-up are as good as any. After that it’s all down hill. If Ken Caminiti can’t stay healthy the bottom half of the order will kill rallies. The pitching staff is still solid, but how did they let Mike Hampton get away. With the loss of Hampton and centerfielder Carl Everett, the Astros stretch of playoff runs is most likely over. However, late in games they will still dominate. Set-up man Jay Powell and closer Billy Wagner maybe be the toughest duo in baseball.
Pittsburgh Pirates
While the pitching staff lacks experience, it certainly has potential. Right-hander Kris Benson has amazing movement on his pitches and could develop into an ace by the end of the season. The rest of staff also is young and talented. The only problem is they lack a closer. With the return of catcher Jason Kendall they should be better offensively than a year ago. The problem is with the departure of Al Martin, Kendall may have to lead off.
Chicago Cubs
Everyone in the Cubs organization is awaiting the return of pitching phenom Kerry Wood. Here is a tip for the Cubs: it doesn’t matter. Wood could start opening day or come back in late September and the Cubbies are going to have a losing record regardless. Starting pitchers Ismael Valdes and Kevin Tapani can both get the job done, just don’t expect great seasons out of both. With this staff, maybe Don Baylor should consider bringing in closer Rick Aguilera in the seventh inning. The Offense has immense talent in some spots and real problems in others. For the 92nd straight time, wait until next year.
Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers batting order has four really good hitters. Ron Belliard, Jeremy Burnitz, Geoff Jenkins, and Marquis Grissom all could be starters on a World Series team. The rest of the Brew crew’s line-up could not. And their pitching staff should all be in AAA ball. Worse yet, due to a crane accident, they won’t even have a new stadium until next year. Looks like another exciting year in Milwaukee.
NL West
Arizona Diamondbacks
In just two years Arizona went from expansion team to 100 wins. The Diamondbacks didn’t do much in the offseason, but why tinker with something that is obviously working. Their pitching staff is solid throughout the rotation and, of course, is anchored by the most feared pitcher in baseball, Randy Johnson. With Johnson and this solid core, including an excellent closer in Matt Mantei, the D’backs probably will never see a four game losing streak. Their offense is fairly potent. The only trouble Arizona might encounter is if second baseman Jay Bell, and outfielders Steve Finley and Luis Gonzalez don’t come close to repeating the career years they had last season. Even that shouldn’t matter. Nobody in their division is good enough to challenge them.
The San Francisco Giants
The Giants have five pitchers with 15-win potential and 7 hitters with 20-homer potential. If all the potential is realized, San Francisco will be on their way to the playoffs. Dusty Baker has done more with less. The problem is, although they are solid at every position with the exception of catcher, they only have one true star (Barry Bonds), and that includes their pitching staff. The good news is if they are in the wild card race in late August, you have to like their chances with Baker leading them and Robb Nen closing out their games.
Colorado Rockies
The Rockies underwent a near complete reconstruction, including their manager, Buddy Bell. Bell will bring an aggressive offensive style involving lots of base stealing and hit-and-runs. Time will tell if that style of baseball works at Coors Field, a park known for power hitting. The biggest loss in the off season was that of left fielder Dante Bauchette. Who did the Rockies replace him with? Jeffrey Hammonds. Jeffrey Hammonds? Hammonds is an 80 percent downgrade. The other big problem the Rockies face is pitching. They claim to have their deepest staff in club history. If they were the Red Sox and had been around for 100 years, that might be impressive. But these are the decade-old Rockies and their pitching staffs always have their confidence shot by July. Tear down the park and build one bigger. Right now, Coors Field is the biggest joke in baseball.
Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers are hoping newly acquired Shawn Green can put the team over the hump and become the franchise player they have been seeking. With Gary Sheffield and Eric Karros batting on either side of him, the left-handed slugger should produce plenty. The Dodgers must get more out of catcher Todd Hundley. Last season he hit 24 home runs, but only drove in 55 runs while battling elbow problems. He has the toughest job in baseball, needing to handle a volatile pitching staff and produce power at the plate. If Hundley gets hurt again, the Dodgers’ season is over.
San Diego Padres
Only two years ago the Padres were in the World Series. Now, finishing out of the cellar is the main goal. They did well for themselves by bringing in left fielder Al Martin to lead off, and first baseman Ryan Klesco to bat clean-up behind Tony Gwynn, but they let their best pitcher, Andy Ashby get away. This team needs a new stadium to compete. Neither will happen while Gwynn is playing, which is too bad.
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